When will the next "Next Generation" arrive? Recently, there has been a lot of speculation that Nintendo will release a Wii 2 in 2011. While a lot of people are busy debunking the rumor, I have to say that it sounds about right to me. I've been watching the industry for a long time, and if they're going to do it, right now is when we would traditionally start hearing the rumblings. It's only two E3 Expos away, folks! I think the date makes a lot of sense for Nintendo, and I'm sure they'll be looking to give us an upgrade right when the audience is most ready for it.

Some might say that 2011 is too soon, but considering that Nintendo has released a new console every five years since 1991, is seems pretty likely. Unlike Sony, Nintendo never really abandoned the 5-year cycle that has been prevalent in the industry. While Sony has positioned themselves with future-proof technology, Nintendo always knew the lifespan of the underpowered Wii was limited. It was a gambit to get back to the number one spot in the industry, and it has worked. Knowing people will be ready for an upgrade sooner than later, their new found (or recovered if you prefer) name recognition will give them the bump they needed to compete. I can guarantee you it won't be another GameCube.

Of course, it's anybody's guess what they will call their next machine. Nintendo usually goes for an entirely different and unrelated name each time, but I'm not sure that will be the case anymore. The Wii name has built up a lot of equity, especially for the expanded audience. I doubt they'll just call it "Wii 2," but it may certainly be along those lines. It wouldn't be the first time they've continued a naming series, as the NES/Famicom begat the SUPER NES/Famicom in burst of creative flair. Then again, that was the last time Nintendo was really in the position it is now, with the dominant name brand in the industry. Taking a cue from other electronics brands, not to mention their own handhelds, I think we will see the Wii name live on with some kind of appellation, and perhaps more emphasis on the Nintendo company name, which has been downplayed in the Wii era.



So, what will Nintendo's new Wii be like? Chances are it will be very similar to the Wii in basic functionality. Motion controls are here to stay, and will probably get even better and more responsive. A graphical upgrade is certainly called for, and HD compatibility is an absolute must. I think we'll be seeing some pretty stuff from Nintendo. The list goes on, better online structure, more internal storage, etc. All that is pretty much a given, but never underestimate Nintendo's ability to throw us a curve ball. They're going to do something different, something to once again stand out from the crowd. I think that the controllers, while still motion based, are going to be pretty different, with more features and possibly fewer buttons. Yes, I'm serious. Besides that, the only other technology on the horizon that I can see Nintendo embracing is 3D displays. I know it sounds far-fetched, but it's just the kind of crazy thing the Big N will pursue full throttle.

I definitely believe, as I think the name will live on, that Wii backwards-compatibility is a given. I think we'll see the original Wii continue to see some support, just as the PS2 does today. Since it will be more of an evolutionary change as opposed to a revolutionary one, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect software for both formats being released. Nintendo has definitely taken a cue from their own success in the handheld market, where revisions come along without supplanting the predecessor entirely. I certainly expect the next console to be more of a significant upgrade, as opposed to the DS versus the DSi situation. Still, approaching it as "another pillar" in their already strong portfolio wouldn't be an unreasonable way to launch the system. It would give them more flexibility and more time to convince their customers to take the plunge and upgrade.

It's nearly impossible to speculate about Nintendo's next machine without also considering what the competition is up to. The fact remains that Sony and, to a lesser extent, Microsoft won't really have to upgrade their hardware by 2011. What we're going to see is a focus on their expanded (i.e. Wii-like) functionality. The motion control systems are going to be handled almost like console launches anyway. Expect big marketing pushes for both systems which will hopefully keep consumers from balking at the price tags. This is the new video games arms race. It won't be about processors and memory, but rather about the experience. I firmly believe Nintendo is planning to step up to the plate with their higher-end competitors, and on a level playing field it will be anybody's game.

With a company like Nintendo, it's very hard to predict what they will actually do. They have this weird way of embracing wild ideas, but also remaining amazingly consistent and conservative. Will they stick to their 5-Year life cycle? My gut says they will, but you always have to be ready for the curve ball. The anticipation of new hardware is always a fun time to be a gamer though, and even if it's all just rumor right now, it sure is fun to daydream about the implications. I've been with Nintendo for quite some time now, and they never disappoint. I'm looking forward to another midnight launch of another great era in gaming.