When the September NPD numbers were released earlier this week, few were surprised to see that the PS3 had ascended up the charts into unfamiliar territory: second place, ahead of the Wii and behind only the virtually untouchable DS. The usual group of market analysts, led by Michael Pachter, predicted as much after Sony announced a price drop, but numbers from one sales month can hardly be interpreted in favor of one company or another.

Still, the question on everyone's mind is this: How does this sudden surge in sales affect Sony's long-term success? Sony has been adamant that they will ultimately win this generation despite their early struggles and the success of their competitors. This attitude is perfectly summed up by SCEA's Peter Dille, who told Game Informer that he sees the console war as a "marathon, not a sprint." If you take the numbers at face value, it does appear as though momentum is shifting in Sony's direction. Does the evidence point to Sony dominating the second half of this console cycle?

The simple answer is "no." A big spike in sales is expected when you cut the price, especially when you finally make your console somewhat cost effective for the average American family. However, there's nothing to suggest that Sony will be able to maintain this momentum nor that Nintendo's momentum will continue to wane, especially considering that the Wii is now $50 cheaper, as well. Nintendo has a limitless well of ideas for further tapping the casual crowd that has made the Wii so successful, and Sony will be hard pressed to cut into or slow down that market. Factor in the 25 million plus hardware deficit that Sony is trying to close and it becomes rather apparent that it'll be a real challenge for the PS3 to outsell the Wii.

Microsoft, however, is a different story. The 360 is very much vulnerable to the PS3's surge up the sales charts simply because it's not as versatile in the market as the Wii. Nintendo can market to both the casual and hardcore crowds with great success provided that they have the right software in the pipelines. Despite what Microsoft does, though, the 360 is and will forever be predominately a hardcore console. It has no real traction with casual gamers, and, as I wrote about previously, Natal isn't going to have quite the marketing splash that Microsoft is hoping for.

The PS3, though, does have casual appeal, and it's only another price drop or two away from putting the 360 to bed unless Microsoft can find a true killer app. This battle will be between the Wii and PS3; the 360 will most definitely end in third place. That much is certain.

So, let's revisit the initial question: How do these numbers affect Sony in the long-term? The PS3 will likely pick up and sell quite well over the next few years now that it's reaching the realm of affordability, but no one can say for certain. However, if my suspicions prove to be correct, it's not going to make much of a difference. The Wii juggernaut is still too much to stop, and though Sony will put up a valiant fight, the hill is too step for them to repeat as winners of this cycle.

No matter what Sony's executives say, it's simply a case of too little, too late.